By Thierry Hasse, Chief Investment Officer
Reflection on the week ending November 14, 2025
Markets End the Week Flat — But the Ride Was Anything But Calm
Despite dramatic intraday volatility, including an 800-point swing in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday, U.S. equity markets closed last week close to unchanged. According to CNBC, the Nasdaq slipped 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and Dow ended slightly higher.¹
The calmer finish masked a deeper unease. Investors continue to wrestle with stretched valuations in large-cap technology, the accelerating capital expenditures behind AI infrastructure and questions about corporate balance-sheet strength. The result: markets that stay directionally stable but churn underneath the surface.
Oracle’s Slide Illustrates the AI Capital-Expenditure Dilemma
Oracle remains a focal point in the broader conversation about AI investment. After surging 36% in early September on expectations of exceptional cloud-infrastructure revenue, shares are now down more than 30% from their high. Investors have grown increasingly concerned about the company’s aggressive debt-financed expansion and its heavy reliance on a single customer — OpenAI — for much of its projected growth.²
The financing side is just as notable. Oracle raised $18 billion in bonds in late September and is now seeking an additional $38 billion through new loans and corporate debt offerings.³ Credit-default-swap pricing has widened sharply, the most since 2021, and is reflecting lenders’ desire to hedge against large-scale AI-related spending.⁴
Demand for cloud infrastructure is real. But with leverage rising and the cost of capital no longer cheap, investors are asking a harder question: Will the return justify the buildout?
Fed Officials Push Back on Expectations for December Cuts
With the federal government reopened, a backlog of economic reports will be released over the coming days. The markets are watching closely.
Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have cast doubt on expectations for additional rate cuts at the Dec. 9–10 Federal Open Markets Committee meeting. Boston Fed President Susan Collins cautioned that cutting too aggressively could risk re-accelerating inflation, especially given lingering uncertainty around tariff impacts.⁵
Treasury yields moved higher on the shift in tone. By week’s end, the 10-year yield reached 4.15%, and CME FedWatch now shows roughly 50/50 odds of a quarter-point cut in December. This is down from near-certainty one month ago.⁶
Higher yields have kept mortgage rates elevated as well. According to Fannie Mae’s latest housing survey, most economists believe a 30-year rate closer to 5.5% would be needed to meaningfully reinvigorate housing activity.⁷ With mortgage rates around 6.35%, housing affordability remains strained.
Retail Earnings Will Help Define the Consumer Story Into Year-End
This week, Walmart and Target will report third-quarter results — an important check-in on the American consumer as the holiday shopping season begins.
Walmart remains one of the most telling barometers of household spending power. With 4,600 U.S. stores, 90% of Americans living within 10 miles of a location, and more than 255 million weekly customers globally, management commentary will help clarify whether spending is holding up or beginning to soften.⁸
Meanwhile, Target’s more uneven performance over the past several quarters makes its outlook particularly relevant for discretionary categories.
But the most highly anticipated report of the week belongs to Nvidia. Scheduled for release Wednesday after the close, options markets are pricing a roughly 6% move in either direction — an elevated implied range highlighted by Bloomberg.⁹ Strong guidance could help stabilize sentiment following the recent AI-driven volatility. Any indication of slowing demand for Blackwell-generation chips could have the opposite effect.
What We’re Watching This Week
With earnings, delayed economic data, and shifting expectations for the December FOMC meeting converging, investors should expect another active week. The broader themes of AI capital intensity, the path of interest rates and consumer resilience remain firmly in play.
At Elevage Partners, we anticipate — we prepare. As always, we are evaluating how these developments may influence portfolio positioning as we move deeper into the fourth quarter.
Sources
- CNBC, U.S. Markets Coverage, Week of Nov. 10–14, 2025.
- Bloomberg, Oracle Market Performance and AI Revenue Expectations, Sept.–Nov. 2025.
- Reuters, Oracle Bond Offering and Debt Financing Activity, Sept.–Nov. 2025.
- Bloomberg, Credit-Default-Swap Pricing Data, Oracle, 2021–2025.
- Federal Reserve, Public Remarks by Susan Collins, Nov. 2025.
- CME Group, FedWatch Tool, Probability of December 2025 Rate Cut.
- Fannie Mae, Housing Survey and Economist Expectations, Oct. 2025.
- Walmart Investor Relations, Corporate Fact Book and 10-K Highlights.
- Bloomberg, Implied Options Move for Nvidia Earnings, Nov. 2025.